Is SL a dying fad?

“Is SL a fad that is on the way out?” is the conversation I had with a friend today. He’s one of the growing number of people I have talked to who liked SL at first but then found it kind of meh over distance. In all honesty SL isn’t like some of the big online games like WoW where you go on quests and attend festivals, and sure there’s a lot of mayhem, but you can be something like a mage or a healer so your hack-factor is less. But for a lot of people creating a second life has a certain appeal…at least until you mess it up to the point where it looks a lot like RL.

The thing that prompted the conversation is that the sim my club is on is closing. The owners are leaving SL. They are a real world  software development company who created an inworld university to teach people about SL, teach them to build and script, there’s even a sandbox. They marketed their software…antivirus software…inworld to everyone who dropped in.

The sim is very popular, it’s listed in Hot Spots almost constantly and they have been in SL for nearly three years. Why are they leaving? Because SL’s population isn’t growing or changing. From a marketing stand point, it’s a stagnant marketplace. Which may explain why the Gossip Girls Sim that was sponsored by Warner Brothers closed as of July 1. There’s still a fan sim for GG but it’s not funded by a marketing machine like WB. At present Linden Lab’s great plan to fix this is making a largely PG virtual world that’s more conducive to luring businesses in.

I was reading a blog today that was saying that SL’s business model doesn’t rely on making money off of their premium accounts (that is accounts that residents pay for). They are in the business of selling servers, sims…islands within SL that individuals and businesses “own” while they are in SL to do use for personal or business uses…all according to the TOS, of course. SL servers are spendy so LL’s best bet is to sell servers to businesses, the government and educational facilities. Which is fine but there’s not much in it for residents. In order to support their model there’s discussion about pulling the plug on the stipend they offer residents (300L or around $1 a week).

From where I stand, we are looking at SL becoming a 3D online advertising platform…so kinda like TV except there won’t be any of those pesky television shows to break up the ads. Sure there will be some art and some educational stuff but…going back to PGSL, only so long as LL approves…wooohooo.

So…I am curious to know what other people think. Do you think that SL is a fad that is going the way of big sunglasses and skinny jeans? Or is SL growing into itself and finding it’s marketshare in the ever changing world of MMORPGs, social networks and online media advertisers?